United States GDP

United States

Third quarter growth revised upwards on inventories, exports

In the third quarter, GDP grew at a seasonally-adjusted annualised rate (saar) of 2.7% over the previous quarter, according to revised data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on 29 November. The print marked an improvement compared to the advance estimate of 2.0% published on 26 October but was broadly in line with market expectations of a 2.8% expansion. The reading represents an acceleration over the 1.3% growth rate recorded in Q2. The improvement over the advance estimate reflected revisions to exports as well as inventories. Exports were revised up to a 1.1% expansion (advance estimate: -1.6% qoq saar), while imports grew a revised 0.1%, a slight improvement over the 0.2% decline previously reported. As a result, the net contribution from the external sector to overall growth shifted from the minus 0.1 percentage points initially reported to plus 0.1 percentage points. On the domestic side, personal consumption expenditures were revised downwards, and expanded 1.4% (advance estimate: +2.0% qoq saar). Similarly, gross fixed investment grew a revised 0.7% (advance estimate: +1.5% saar), amid downward revisions to both residential and non-residential fixed investment. However, higher inventories added 0.8 percentage points to overall economic growth (advance estimate: -0.1 percentage points).


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United States GDP Chart

USA GDP Q3 2012

Note: Quarter-on-quarter annualized changes and annual variation of seasonally adjusted GDP in %.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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