Ukraine Industry April 2016


Industrial production posts growth for third consecutive month

In April, industrial production increased 3.5% over the same month last year, according to data released by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. The result followed March’s 6.8% expansion and marked the third consecutive month of growth. Growth was nearly broad-based, with expansions tallied in manufacturing as well as in mining and quarrying. However, electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning component contracted in April.

Looking at the regions, industrial production in Luhansk more than doubled, as activity continues to recover. The ongoing crisis between the Ukrainian government and pro-Russian separatist groups caused industrial production to plummet by over 10% in 2015, as the conflict is centered in the eastern regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, Ukraine’s industrial heartland. However, data has begun to turnaround at the start of 2016, although largely due to the low base from last year.

On a monthly basis, industrial production contracted a seasonally-adjusted 3.4%, which contrasted March’s 6.8% increase. However, the trend continued to improve and annual average variation in industrial output rose from April’s minus 6.7% to minus 4.6%.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants’ project that industrial output will grow 2.4% in 2016, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2017, panelists expect industrial production to rise 3.9%.

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Ukraine Industry Chart

Ukraine Industry April 2016

Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of industrial production in %.
Source: State Statistics Service of Ukraine and FocusEconomics calculations.

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