Ukraine GDP


GDP contracts less than initially expected in Q1

In the first quarter, GDP declined 1.1% over the same period last year, according to revised data released by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine on 10 June. The figure, which followed the 2.5% fall observed in the last quarter of 2012, represents a modest improvement over the 1.3% decline initially reported in the flash estimate. That said, the reading marks the third consecutive contraction in output.

Private consumption expanded 4.5% in the first quarter (Q4 2012: +6.9% year-on-year), while public spending grew 2.1% (Q4: -1.3% yoy). Moreover, fixed investment recorded positive growth, expanding 4.0% (Q4: -7.5% yoy). However, a strong destocking process caused total investment to plummet 27.2% (Q4: -23.2% yoy).

On the external side of the economy, exports contracted 6.8% in the first quarter (Q4: -8.7% yoy), while imports dropped 4.6% (Q4: -3.5% yoy). As a result, the net contribution from the external sector to overall growth improved from minus 1.6 percentage points in the fourth quarter to minus 0.5 percentage points in the first.

A quarter-on-quarter comparison corroborates the improvement suggested by the annual figures, as the economy grew a seasonally adjusted 0.6% over the previous quarter (Q4: -0.9% quarter-on-quarter).

FocusEconomics participants see the economy growing 0.8% in 2013, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month's forecast. For 2014, panellists anticipate that the economy will grow 3.1%.

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Ukraine GDP Chart

Ukraine GDP Q1 2013

Note: Year-on-year variation of GDP in %.
Source: State Statistics Service of Ukraine and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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