Ukraine GDP


GDP contracts for first time in nearly three years

In the third quarter, GDP declined 1.3% over the same period the previous year, according to data released by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine on 11 December. The figure contrasted the 3.0% rise observed in the second quarter and marked, in fact, the first contraction recorded since Q4 2009. The reading confirmed the preliminary flash estimate released on 30 October.

Private consumption expanded 12.0% in the third quarter (Q2: +14.3% year-on-year), while public spending rose 9.4% (Q2: +2.5 yoy). On the other hand, fixed investment contracted 2.9% (Q2: +16.9% yoy). In addition, total investment plummeted a sharper 14.8% (Q2: +19.2% yoy), amid a strong destocking process.

On the external side, exports contracted 5.8% in the third quarter (Q2: -6.8% yoy), while imports slowed to a 5.5% rise (Q2: +10.8% yoy). As a result, the net contribution from the external sector to overall growth improved from minus 8.4 percentage points in the second quarter to minus 4.6 percentage points in the third.

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Ukraine GDP Chart

Ukraine GDP Q3 2012

Note: Year-on-year variation of GDP in %.
Source: State Statistics Service of Ukraine and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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