Turkey Inflation


Inflation jumps to highest level in eight months in March

In March, consumer prices increased 1.13% over the previous month, which was well above the 0.43% rise recorded in February. The print overshot the 0.87% increase that market analysts had expected. According to the statistical office, the increase resulted primarily from higher prices for clothing and footwear as well as for food and non-alcoholic beverages. According to analysts, the recent rally of the lira also played a role in the strong monthly figure. Annual inflation increased from 7.9% in February to 8.4% in March, which marked the highest level since July 2013.

The core inflation index, which excludes more volatile categories such as unprocessed food and energy, rose 1.17% over the previous month in March (February: +0.82% month-on-month). Annual core inflation increased from 8.1% in February to 8.9% in March, which marked the highest reading since July 2012.

The Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) sees inflation ending 2014 at 6.6% before slowing to 5.0% by the end of 2015. Its official inflation target remains at 5.0%. FocusEconomics panelists expect inflation to close 2014 at 8.0%, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month's forecast. For 2015, the panel sees inflation moderating to 6.7% by year-end.

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Turkey Inflation Chart

Turkey Inflation March 2014

Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month variation of consumer price index in %.
Source: Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat).

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