Turkey Inflation


Inflation hits five-month low in October

In October, consumer prices jumped 1.80% over the previous month, marking the largest monthly increase in a year. The print followed the 0.77% rise recorded in September and overshot the 1.60% increase the market had expected. According to the statistical office, the rise was mostly due to higher prices for clothing and footwear as well as for food and non-alcoholic beverages. Annual inflation moderated from 7.9% in September to 7.7% in October, the lowest reading in five months.

The core inflation index, which excludes more volatile categories such as unprocessed food and energy, rose 1.37% over the previous month (September: +0.71% month-on-month), which drove annual core inflation to 7.8%, up from 7.7% in September.

The Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) sees inflation ending 2013 at 6.8%, before decelerating to 5.3% in 2014. The Bank's official inflation target remains at 5.0%. FocusEconomics panelists expect inflation to close this year at 7.5%, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month's forecast. For 2014, the panel sees inflation moderating to 6.5% by year-end, which is unchanged over the previous month's estimate.

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Turkey Inflation Chart

Turkey Inflation October 2013

Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month variation of consumer price index in %.
Source: Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat).

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