Trinidad & Tobago Economic Forecast

Trinidad and Tobago Economic Outlook

October 11, 2021

Available data points to downbeat economic activity in Q2. Tougher Covid-19 restrictions in May–June had an immediate impact on the domestic market, as shown by slumping vehicle sales during the period. Looking at production indicators, oil output remained strong in April–May, but LNG output contracted at a sharper pace in Q2 overall. Turning to Q3, in mid-July the government eased restrictions, rekindling the domestic market as motor vehicle sales recovered in July–August. Meanwhile, LNG output remained relatively low in July, reportedly at roughly half the previous year’s level. In other news, on 4 October the government tabled its draft 2022 budget totaling USD 7.7 billion, above 2021’s USD 6.6 billion. Education is the biggest spending area, with healthcare and national security closely following. The plan sees a fiscal deficit of 5.8% in 2022, well above our 5.0% forecast.

Trinidad & Tobago Economic Growth

Economic growth should keep pace in 2022, after this year’s rebound. The domestic market should benefit from eased restrictions and strong fiscal support, while vaccination progress will offset Covid-19-related risks. Meanwhile, the discovery of new gas fields bodes well for the energy sector. The potential to untap further reserves of oil and gas poses an upside risk. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy expanding 3.1% in 2021. In 2022, economic growth is seen at 3.3%, which is up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month’s estimate.

Trinidad & Tobago Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)1.41.41.41.41.4
GDP per capita (USD)18,48416,41416,52417,370-  
GDP (USD bn)25.122.422.623.9-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.8-6.3-2.3-0.2-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)8.9-  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-31.5-  -  -  -  
Unemployment Rate3.44.04.8185-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.7-5.3-8.9-3.6-2.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)53.958.361.860.163.2
Money (annual variation in %)-1.43.2-2.13.10.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.53.11.31.00.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.73.11.91.01.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.754.754.755.005.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.426.716.776.816.76
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.366.636.746.756.77
Current Account (% of GDP)6.9-4.45.35.8-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.7-1.01.21.4-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)3.91.23.03.9-  
Exports (USD billion)11.48.39.410.5-  
Imports (USD billion)7.57.16.56.7-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-23.7-27.213.711.4-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-4.9-5.9-9.03.4-  
International Reserves (USD)10.09.58.58.17.0
External Debt (% of GDP)8.914.315.615.5-  

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Trinidad & Tobago Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate6.760.39 %Jan 01

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