Trinidad & Tobago Economic Forecast

Trinidad and Tobago Economic Outlook

April 12, 2022

Newly released data show that economic growth accelerated to 8.2% in Q3 from 2.3% in Q2, driven by a surge in crude oil exploration and extraction, as well as by the manufacturing of petrochemicals and the distribution of petroleum and natural gas. Similarly, activity in the construction sector boomed. Covid-19-related restrictions were eased towards year-end, which should have buoyed activity in Q4 2021. That said, notably higher inflation in the period likely capped household spending. Turning to 2022, inflation gained further steam in January. On the other hand, higher energy prices bode well for the external sector as mineral fuels account for over half of the country’s goods exports. Fertilizer prices have also risen due to the war in Ukraine, driving up prices for agricultural products—which accounted for around 9% of exports in 2021—boding well for government finances.

Trinidad & Tobago Economic Growth

Economic growth should accelerate this year from last year’s meager growth reading. A rollback of restrictions on daily life and supportive fiscal policy should buoy domestic demand, while greater commodity prices bode well for the government’s coffers. New gas projects coming online this year should further fuel economic growth. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy expanding 4.6% in 2022, which is unchanged from the previous month’s estimate. In 2023, economic growth is seen at 2.2%.

Trinidad & Tobago Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)1.41.41.41.41.4
GDP per capita (USD)18,48416,41416,52417,370-  
GDP (USD bn)25.122.422.623.9-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.8-6.3-2.3-0.2-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)8.9-  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-31.5-  -  -  -  
Unemployment Rate3.44.04.8185-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.7-5.3-8.9-3.6-2.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)53.958.361.860.163.2
Money (annual variation in %)-1.43.2-2.13.10.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.53.11.31.00.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.73.11.91.01.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.754.754.755.005.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.426.716.776.816.76
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.366.636.746.756.77
Current Account (% of GDP)6.9-4.45.35.8-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.7-1.01.21.4-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)3.91.23.03.9-  
Exports (USD billion)11.48.39.410.5-  
Imports (USD billion)7.57.16.56.7-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-23.7-27.213.711.4-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-4.9-5.9-9.03.4-  
International Reserves (USD)10.09.58.58.17.0
External Debt (% of GDP)8.914.315.615.5-  

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Trinidad & Tobago Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate6.760.39 %Jan 01

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