Taiwan GDP Q4 2015


Economy tallies larger-than-expected contraction in Q4

In the fourth quarter of 2015, GDP contracted a revised 0.5% over the same period of the previous year, according to official data released by the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) on 17 February. The reading represents a steeper contraction from the 0.3% decline reported in the advanced estimate released on 19 January. Q4’s print represents a slight improvement from Q3’s revised 0.8% contraction (previously reported: -0.6% year-on-year). For 2015, the economy expanded a meagre 0.8%—the lowest reading since 2009.

Q4’s downturn came on the back of a contraction in the external sector, which more than offset a moderate improvement in the domestic sector. Subdued demand and stiffer competition for electronic products from Mainland China weighed on the external sector while low oil prices gave a small boost to domestic demand and pushed up consumption in the last quarter of 2015. Private consumption expanded 1.5% year-on-year in Q4, which came in above Q3’s 0.5% growth. Government consumption, on the other hand, swung from a 0.3% expansion in the third quarter to a 0.1% contraction in the fourth quarter. Gross capital formation contracted 0.4% in Q4 (Q3: -0.3% year-on-year).

On the external front, exports of goods and services contracted 2.6% in Q4 (Q3: -2.9% yoy). In addition, imports dropped 1.0%, coming in above Q3’s 1.5% decline (previously reported: -2.2% yoy). As exports deteriorated at a faster rate than imports, the external sector’s net contribution to overall economic growth inched down from minus 1.3 percentage points to minus 1.1 percentage points.

On a sequential basis, GDP rose 0.8% over the previous period in seasonally-adjusted terms, which contrasted the 0.1% decline observed in the third quarter of 2015. Q4 marked the best reading since Q3 2014 and is a possible indication that Taiwan’s economy bottomed out in the third quarter of last year.

As a result of the weak fourth quarter reading, the government downgraded its GDP forecast to 1.5% in 2016 (previous estimate: +2.3%). FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project GDP to grow 1.9% in 2016, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2017, the panel estimates that economic activity will increase 2.6%.

Sample Report

Looking for forecasts related to GDP in Taiwan? Download a sample report now.


Taiwan GDP Chart

Taiwan GDP Q4 2015 0

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts.

Taiwan Economic News

  • Taiwan: Exports fall and trade surplus narrows in September

    October 9, 2016

    In September, the trade surplus totaled USD 4.4 billion, according to data from the Ministry of Finance.

    Read more

  • Taiwan: Inflation moderates further in September

    October 5, 2016

    In September, consumer prices increased 0.45% over the previous month, which was a rebound from the 0.03% fall recorded in August.

    Read more

  • Taiwan: Manufacturing PMI hits two-year high in September

    October 3, 2016

    Taiwanese manufacturers registered better business conditions for the fourth consecutive month in September.

    Read more

  • Taiwan: Central Bank halts easing cycle on healthy economic growth

    September 29, 2016

    At its quarterly monetary policy meeting on 29 September, the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) decided to leave the discount rate unchanged at 1.375%, which was a decision that markets had expected, although some analysts had foreseen a further reduction to the key policy rate. The Central Bank has cut the main monetary policy rate four times since September 2015 by a total of 50 basis points and this time the authority decided to leave interest rates unchanged “against a back drop of moderate global growth and renewed momentum for the domestic economy, along with a mild inflation outlook for next year.” Regarding global developments and how they affect the Taiwanese economy, the Central Bank stated that the global economy continues to decelerate as a result of slower economic growth in the U.S., a still tepid recovery in the Eurozone economy and sluggish economic activity in Japan.

    Read more

  • Taiwan: Industrial production benefits from Apple’s new iPhone debut

    September 27, 2016

    Taiwan’s industrial output increased substantially in August, backed by a base effect but also due to strong growth in semiconductor manufacturers’ output, which benefited from the debut of Apple’s latest iPhone model.

    Read more

More news

Search form