Switzerland Economic Sentiment


Leading economic indicator falls to lowest level in nearly three years

Switzerland’s KOF economic barometer—a composite leading indicator for the Swiss economy in the next six months—fell from a revised 98.8 points in December (previously reported: 98.7 points) to 97.0 points in January, which marked the lowest level since June 2012. The result was below the 97.5 points the markets had expected.

The KOF Swiss Economic Institute commented that, “nearly 94% of the participants responded before the repeal of the currency floor by the Swiss National Bank.” As a result, “the KOF Barometer reflects the new situation only very limited.” The Institute concluded that, “the KOF Economic Barometer indicates that the climate for the Swiss economy gets rougher.”

January’s result showed that the economic climate deteriorated in the hotel and catering sector. In addition, the prospects in the textile industry and mechanical engineering also worsened compared to the previous month. Conversely, the performance of the banking sector was stable in January.

The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) expects GDP to expand 2.1% in 2015. For 2016, the SECO sees economic activity strengthening and expect GDP to expand 2.4%. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank expects economic growth of around 2.0% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 1.1% in 2015, which is down 0.7 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2016, the panel expects economic growth to accelerate slightly to 1.4%.

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Switzerland Economic Sentiment Chart

Switzerland Economic Sentiment January 2015 0

Note: KOF Economic Barometer Indicator.
Source: KOF Swiss Economic Institute.

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