Spain GDP


More detailed data confirms largest expansion since Q1 2007

GDP expanded a seasonally-adjusted 1.0% in Q2 over the previous quarter, according to more complete data released by the National Statistics Office (INE) on 27 August. The print matched the result reported in the 30 July advance estimate and marked the largest expansion since Q1 2007. With the increase observed in Q2, the economy has now expanded for eight consecutive quarters.

Q2’s improvement reflected an increase in domestic demand, driven by accelerating private consumption and fixed investment. Private consumption expanded at the fastest pace since Q4 2007, growing 1.0% (Q1: +0.7% quarter-on-quarter). Fixed investment also picked up pace rising from Q1’s 1.4% increase to a 2.0% rise in Q2. In contrast, government consumption slowed from a 1.7% expansion in Q1 to a 0.4% increase in Q2.

In the external sector, exports of goods and services accelerated notably, rising from 0.4% growth in Q1 to a 1.6% expansion in Q2. Imports recorded a large improvement as well, rising to a 2.3% increase (Q1: +0.4% quarter-on-quarter). As a result of imports outpacing exports, the external sector’s net contribution to overall growth fell, swinging from plus 0.1 percentage points in Q1 to minus 0.4 percentage points in Q2.

On an annual basis, GDP rose 3.1%, which matched the preliminary estimate and marked the strongest growth since Q1 2007 (Q1: +2.7% year-on-year).

The Central Bank expects the economy to grow 2.8% in 2015 and 2.7% in 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 2.6% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2016, panelists expect the economy to increase 2.4%.

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Spain GDP Chart

Spain GDP Q2 2015 0

Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally-adjusted GDP and year-on-year variation in %
Source: Statistical Institute (INE) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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