Serbia: Economy decelerates in Q4

In Q4, the economy expanded 1.2% over the same quarter last year, according to data released by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (SORS) on 29 February. The print marked a deceleration over the 2.3% increase seen in the third quarter.

Private consumption in Q4 contracted 0.3% in annual terms, which was an improvement over the 0.6% drop seen in the previous quarter. Moreover, growth in government consumption accelerated from 0.7% in Q3 to 0.8% in Q4, the best result in a year. Conversely, fixed investment grew 7.8%, which was a deceleration over the 11.5% increase seen in Q3.

On the external side of the economy, exports of goods and services decelerated from a 8.3% increase in Q3 to a 6.1% rise in Q4. However, imports improved and grew 5.0% in Q4, which was down from the 4.4% increase seen in Q3. As a result, the net contribution from the external sector deteriorated from plus 1.2 percentage points in Q3 to minus 0.2 percentage points in Q4.

Compared to the previous period, GDP didn’t change in Q4. The flat figure contrasted the 0.2% decrease recorded in Q3.

The National Bank of Serbia expects the economy to expand 1.8% this year. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to record 1.7% growth in 2016, which is unchanged over the previous month’s projection. For 2017, the panel sees GDP increasing 2.2%.