Russia Inflation


Inflation eases for the first time in this year in July

In July, consumer prices rose 0.5% over the previous month, which was a tad below the 0.6% rise recorded in June. July’s rise was broad-based, with all but one category showing an increase in prices. The only category that registered a price drop was foodstuffs, yet this was enough to drive the moderation in monthly inflation.

Annual inflation edged down from 7.8% in June to 7.4% in July, which marked the lowest level in three months and the first moderation since the beginning of this year. Despite the deceleration, the Central Bank has already stated that it is unlikely that inflation will move toward the Bank’s 5.0% target before the end of the year.

The core consumer price index, which excludes short-term price changes that are influenced by administrative and seasonal factors, rose 0.6% in July, which was below the 0.8% increase seen in June. Annual core inflation increased from 7.5% in June to 7.8% in July, which is the highest level since August 2011.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see inflation ending 2014 at 6.5%, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2015, participants expect inflation to ease to 5.2%.


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Russia Inflation Chart

Russia Inflation July 2014

Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month variation of consumer price index in %.
Source: Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat).

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