Romania GDP Q4 2015


Economic growth ticks up in Q4 on surging private consumption and investment

In the fourth quarter of 2015, the economy expanded 3.8% over the same period of the previous year, according to more detailed data released on 8 March. The figure marked a marginal acceleration compared to the 3.6% expansion observed in the third quarter and came above the 3.7% reported in the preliminary estimate. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP rose 1.1% in seasonally-adjusted terms in Q4, which was down from the 1.5% rise tallied in Q3. In the full year 2015, GDP expanded a notable 3.8%, marking an acceleration compared to 2014’s 3.0% growth.

Private consumption grew 7.6% in the fourth quarter, which was stronger than the 6.6% increase observed in Q3 and marked the largest expansion since Q3 2008. By contrast, government spending decelerated from Q3’s 4.0% rise to a milder 1.3% growth in Q4. Growth in fixed investment surged from 4.2% in Q3 to a remarkable 11.0% expansion in Q4, which was the fastest pace of growth since September 2008.

On the external side of the economy, exports swung from a 0.9% increase in Q3 to a 1.5% contraction in Q4, marking the weakest reading in over three years. Imports sped up from a 3.1% growth in the third quarter to a 3.9% rise in the fourth quarter. Thus, the external sector’s net contribution to overall economic growth fell from minus 2.1 percentage points in Q3 to minus 3.5 percentage points in Q4.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect Romania’s GDP to grow 4.0% in 2016, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2017, panelists see GDP growth of 3.6%.

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Romania GDP Chart

Romania GDP Q4 2015 0

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: National Institute of Statistics and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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