Portugal GDP


Portuguese economy expands for second consecutive quarter

In the third quarter, GDP rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.2% over the previous quarter according to a flash estimate released by Statistics Portugal on 14 November. The reading followed the strong 1.1% rise tallied in the second quarter but fell short of the 0.3% expansion that markets had expected. The Q3 print represented the second consecutive expansion in the country's output. Detailed and more complete data will be published on 9 December.

GDP contracted 1.0% in annual terms, which marked an improvement over the 2.0% decline recorded in the second quarter. According to Statistics Portugal, the third quarter reading reflects a smaller decline in private consumption as well as a deterioration in the external sector due to rising imports.

The Bank of Portugal expects the economy to expand 0.3% in 2014 and estimates that the economy will contract 1.6% in 2013. The government is more upbeat than the Central Bank regarding 2014 and expects the economy to grow 0.8%, after contracting 1.8% in 2013. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists anticipate that GDP will contract 1.9% in 2013, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month's projection. For 2014, the panel expects GDP to expand 0.4%, which is unchanged over the previous month's estimate.

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Portugal GDP Chart

Portugal GDP Q3 2013

Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally adjusted GDP and year-on-year variation in %.
Source: Statistics Portugal (INE) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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