Portugal GDP


Portuguese economy expands again in Q4

In Q4, GDP expanded a seasonally-adjusted 0.5% over the previous quarter according to a flash estimate released by Statistics Portugal on 14 February. The increase followed the 0.3% rise tallied in Q3 and overshot the 0.1% expansion that markets had expected. The Q4 print marks the third consecutive expansion in the country's output.

GDP expanded 1.6% in annual terms, which contrasted the 0.9% decline recorded in Q3 and marked the largest increase since Q3 2010. In the full year 2013, GDP contracted 1.4%, which was above the 3.2% drop tallied in 2012. Detailed and more complete data will be published on 11 March.

According to Statistics Portugal, the Q4 annual expansion reflects an upturn in domestic demand, which recorded the first positive contribution to GDP since 2010, mostly as a result of improving private consumption. In addition, the external sector's contribution to overall economic activity increased in Q4.

The Bank of Portugal expects the economy to expand 0.8% in 2014 and 1.3% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect that GDP will expand 0.7% in 2014, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month's projection. For 2015, the panel expects economic growth to accelerate to 1.2%.

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Portugal GDP Chart

Portugal GDP Q4 2013

Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally adjusted GDP and year-on-year variation in %.
Source: Statistics Portugal (INE) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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