Portugal GDP


GDP Q3 revised down a notch

In the third quarter, GDP declined a seasonally adjusted 0.9% over the previous quarter, according to detailed data published on 7 December. The contraction, which was only slightly below the 14 November flash estimate of a 0.8% drop, followed the 1.0% decline seen in the second quarter. On an annual basis, the economy declined 3.5% in Q3, a deterioration over the 3.1% drop recorded in the second quarter.

According to Statistics Portugal, the third quarter reading reflected a less negative contribution of domestic demand to overall growth. Total consumption declined a softer 0.6% over the previous quarter (Q2: -0.9% quarter-on-quarter) aided by a smaller contraction in private consumption (Q2: -1.0% qoq; Q3: -0.2% qoq), while government consumption deteriorated further (Q2: -0.8% qoq; Q3: -1.8% qoq). On the other hand, gross fixed investment swung from a 10.8% fall in the second quarter to a mild 0.7% increase in the third.

On the other hand, the net contribution from the external sector deteriorated significantly, as imports outpaced exports. Shipments of goods and services contracted 0.2% over the previous quarter (Q2: -0.4% qoq), while imports swung from a 4.8% drop in the second quarter to a 1.7% expansion. As a result, the external sector's net contribution to overall economic growth swung from plus 1.7 percentage points in the second quarter to minus 0.7 percentage points in the third.

The Central Bank expects the economy to contract 3.0% in 2012. For 2013, the Bank expects a 1.6% contraction in GDP.


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Portugal GDP Chart

Portugal GDP Q3 2012

Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally adjusted GDP and year-on-year variation in %.
Source: Statistics Portugal (INE) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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