Portugal GDP Q4 2015


Economy records modest expansion in Q4

GDP grew by 0.2% at a seasonally-adjusted rate in Q4 over the previous quarter, according to detailed data published by Statistics Portugal on 29 February. The expansion was slightly more than the 0.1% rise tallied in the previous quarter. On an annual basis, the economy grew 1.3% in Q4, which was a tad below Q3’s 1.4% rise and marked the softest growth in a year.

The slight acceleration observed in Q4 came on the back of a softer contraction in domestic demand, which more than offset a deterioration of the external sector on higher imports. Private consumption expanded 0.2% in Q4 over the previous quarter, which was below the 0.4% rise tallied in Q3. Government spending recorded zero growth in Q4 (Q3: -0.5% quarter-on-quarter). Finally, fixed investment fell 1.6% in Q4 (Q3: -2.7% qoq).

Exports of goods and services in Q4 rose 1.5% over the previous quarter, which contrasted the 1.8% fall tallied in Q3. Imports expanded 0.8% in Q4, rebounding from the 3.0% decrease tallied in Q3. As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to overall growth deteriorated from 0.6 percentage points in Q3 to 0.3 percentage points in Q4.

The Bank of Portugal expects the economy to expand 1.7% in 2016 and 1.8% in 2017. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 1.5% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. For 2016, the panel foresees the economy growing 1.7%.

Author:, Economist

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Portugal GDP Chart

Portugal GDP Q4 2015 0

Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation in %.
Source: Statistics Portugal (INE) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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