GDP expanded a seasonally-adjusted 0.6% over the previous quarter in Q4 (Q3: +0.3% quarter-on-quarter) according to detailed data published by Statistics Portugal on 11 March. The print slightly overshot the 0.5% increase reported in the preliminary estimate and marked the third consecutive expansion in national output. On an annual basis, the economy increased a robust 1.7% in Q4, which contrasted the 0.9% decline tallied in Q3 and represented the fastest pace of expansion since Q3 2010. According to Statistics Portugal, the Q4 expansion reflects a strong improvement in the external sector, while domestic demand deteriorated. Private consumption contracted 0.5% over the previous quarter (Q3: +1.2% qoq), whereas government spending expanded at the fastest pace in three years (Q3: -0.5% qoq; Q4: +1.2% qoq). Gross fixed investment improved from a 1.5% increase in Q3 to a 3.4% expansion in Q4, marking the highest rate in six years. In contrast, the external sector's net contribution to overall growth improved markedly, swinging from minus 1.1 percentage points in Q3 to plus 0.2 percentage points in Q4. Exports of goods and services rose 1.0% over the previous quarter (Q3: +0.3% qoq), while imports slowed to a 0.5% increase (Q3: +3.0% qoq). The Bank of Portugal expects the economy to expand 0.8% in 2014 and 1.3% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect that GDP will expand 0.9% in 2014, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month's projection. For 2015, the panel expects economic growth to accelerate to 1.3%.
Economic recovery gains traction in Q4
March 11, 2014
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Portugal GDP Chart
Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally adjusted GDP and year-on-year variation in %.
Source: Statistics Portugal (INE) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
Portugal Economic News
September 30, 2016
Portugal’s industrial production edged up in August after July’s drop.
September 29, 2016
The survey of consumer sentiment produced by the National Statistical Institute showed that the consumer confidence index inched up from minus 12.7 points in August to minus 11.3 points in September.
August 31, 2016
Portugal’s GDP increased a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in Q2 over the previous quarter, according to revised data published by the National Statistics Institute on 31 August.
August 30, 2016
Portugal’s industrial production edged down again in July after June’s rebound.
August 30, 2016
The survey of consumer sentiment produced by the National Statistical Institute showed that the consumer confidence index inched up from minus 13.1 points in July to minus 12.7 points in August.