Portugal Economic Sentiment May 2016


Leading indicators show mild improvement in May

According to the May survey of consumer sentiment elaborated by the National Statistical Institute, the consumer confidence index edged up to minus 11.9 points from minus 12.1 points in April. According to the Institute, the mild increase in May reflected households’ more optimistic opinions regarding their own financial expectations for the next 12 months. In addition, households were more optimistic regarding employment prospects. Conversely, consumers’ assessment regarding the state of the economy in the next 12 months deteriorated over the previous month.

Meanwhile, the Institute’s economic climate indicator, which reflects economic sentiment in Portugal’s main industrial sectors, inched up from 1.1 points in April to 1.2 points in May. The improvement pushed the indicator to its highest level since October 2015 and mainly reflected improving economic sentiment in manufacturing, construction and trade. Conversely, confidence among firms in the services sector fell over the previous month.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect private consumption to expand 2.0% in 2016, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2017, the panel expects private consumption to increase 1.8%. Panelists expect fixed investment to increase 0.9% in 2016, which is down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s estimate. The panel sees fixed investment expanding 3.3% in 2017.

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Portugal Economic Sentiment Chart

Portugal Economic Sentiment May 2016

Note: Consumer Confidence and Economic Climate indicators.
Source: Statistics Portugal (INE).

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