Portugal Economic Sentiment June 2016


Consumer confidence drops and offsets better mood among firms

The June survey of consumer sentiment elaborated by the National Statistical Institute showed that the consumer confidence index fell to minus 13.9 points from minus 11.9 points in May. According to the Institute, June’s decrease reflected households’ more pessimistic view regarding their financial expectations for the next 12 months. The survey also showed that consumers were more downbeat regarding the country’s economic prospects in the coming 12 months and, consequently, the future employment situation.

The Institute’s overall economic climate indicator was steady at May’s 1.2 points in June and thus remained at the highest level since October 2015. The unchanged figure showed that the aforementioned drop in consumer confidence offset an improvement in sentiment among Portuguese businesses, particularly in the manufacturing sector, as well as in trade and services.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect private consumption to expand 2.1% in 2016, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2017, the panel expects private consumption to increase 1.7%. Panelists expect fixed investment to increase 0.5% in 2016, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s estimate. The panel sees fixed investment expanding 3.6% in 2017.

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Portugal Economic Sentiment Chart

Portugal Economic Sentiment June 2016 2

Note: Consumer Confidence and Economic Climate indicators.
Source: Statistics Portugal (INE).

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