Poland Monetary Policy


NBP keeps reference rate at record low of 1.50%

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) kept its reference rate at the record low of 1.50% at its 2–3 June monetary policy meeting. The decision matched market expectations and was the second consecutive time the NBP left the rate unchanged at this level.

In its accompanying statement, the NBP stated that the global economy continues to grow moderately and that it expects a slight acceleration in 2015, although the situation varies across countries and regions. According to the Bank, the U.S. economy should continue to recover at a solid pace despite a disappointing first quarter of growth in 2015. Economic activity in the Euro area remains relatively low and has been weakening. In addition, the projections for Poland’s Eastern European partners such as Russia and Ukraine remains unfavorable. On the domestic front, real GDP growth accelerated from 3.3% in Q4 2014 to 3.6% in Q1 2015.

Regarding inflation, the Bank stated that oil prices have started to rise in recent months after a sharp and long-lasting fall, fuelling inflation pressures in the Euro area. However, global price growth remains very low and even negative in many European countries. Thus, major central banks are keeping their interest rates close to zero. In addition, the European Central Bank continues its asset purchase program.

Finally, the Bank commented that, “the annual growth of consumer prices remains negative, although the slight increase in fuel and food prices in the recent period has limited the scale of deflation. However, producer prices growth remains markedly negative, and inflation expectations continue to be very low.”

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the policy rate to end 2015 at 1.82%. For 2016, the panel sees the rate ending the year at 1.97%.

Author:, Economist

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Poland Monetary Policy Chart

Poland Monetary Policy May 2015 0

Note: NBP Reference Rate in %.
Source: National Bank of Poland (NBP).

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