Poland GDP Q2 2016


Growth accelerates in Q2

Poland’s economy accelerated in the second quarter of the year according to recent data released by the Central Statistical Office of Poland. The economy grew 3.1% over the same period last year in Q2, which was a tad up from the 3.0% expansion tallied in Q1.

On the domestic side of the economy, the slowdown in public investment on the back of reduced EU development funds continued to bite. Fixed investment dropped 4.9% in Q2, which represented a deterioration over the 1.8% contraction tallied in Q1, and marked the worst result since Q4 2012. Government spending remained stable, recording a 4.4% expansion in Q2, in line with Q1’s reading. Conversely, private consumption improved slightly and grew 3.3% (Q1: +3.2% year-on-year). In addition, inventories contributed positively to GDP.

Stronger export growth, which expanded at the fastest pace since Q1 2011, led to a positive contribution to growth from the external sector in Q2. Export growth picked up from Q1’s 6.9% to 10.9% in Q2. Imports also accelerated in Q2, growing 9.9% (Q1: +9.3% yoy).

Poland’s economy is expected to grow robustly this year driven mainly by strong private consumption, which is expected to accelerate going forward amid improving labor market conditions and tax breaks.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect that the economy will expand 3.3% in 2016, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2017, panelists also foresee the economy growing 3.3%.

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Poland GDP Chart

Poland GDP Q2 2016 1

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Central Statistical Office (GUS) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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