Philippines Trade


Exports contract for seventh consecutive month in October

Philippine exports have been falling since April and continued to contract in October, although at a softer pace than in the previous month. Exports fell an annual 10.8% in October, which marked an improvement compared to September’s 15.5% decline. October’s advance mainly reflected a milder contraction in manufactures. Exports of electronic products—classified as a sub-category of manufactures—rebounded and rose 7.3% on an annual basis, which contrasted the 2.1% decrease seen in the previous month. According to the Philippine Statistics Authority, electronic products account for the largest share of the total export revenue. Conversely, agro-based products recorded another double-digit contraction in October.

In September (the latest month for which data are available), imports expanded 6.7% in annual terms, exceeding August’s 4.1% increase. Meanwhile, the trade balance deteriorated and tallied a USD 1.2 billion deficit in September (September 2014: USD 63 million surplus).

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see exports rising 6.8% in 2016 and slowing to a 2.6% expansion in 2017. Panelists expect a trade deficit of USD 10.6 billion in 2016 and see it widening to USD 14.9 billion in 2017.

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Philippines Trade Chart

Philippines Exports yoy October 2015

Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation in %.
Source: National Statistics Office (NSO) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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