Oman Economic Outlook
September 7, 2021Economic conditions likely improved somewhat in the second quarter, after GDP contracted in Q1. Crude oil output expanded year-on-year, contrasting the decline posted in Q1. Moreover, growth in natural gas production accelerated notably in Q2, which bodes well for the energy sector. That said, ongoing restrictions to contain the spread of the virus likely continued to hamper the non-energy sector in Q2, and the introduction of a VAT in mid-April is expected to have dampened consumer spending. Turning to Q3, new Covid-19 cases have tapered in recent weeks and authorities eased some restrictions on daily life and on travel, which should be supporting activity somewhat. Meanwhile, the energy sector is likely continuing to expand robustly in Q3 as crude oil output grew at a rapid pace in July, while natural gas production hit a fresh record high in the same month.
Oman Economic GrowthGDP should grow this year following last year’s projected steep contraction, as the fallout from the pandemic fades, oil production rebounds and external demand strengthens. Nevertheless, an uncertain Covid-19 situation at home, austerity measures and the recent implementation of a VAT will likely drag on the recovery in domestic demand. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists foresee the economy growing 1.9% in 2021, which is down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month’s forecast. In 2022, our panel expects GDP to grow 3.9%.
Oman Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||18,080||16,311||17,020||18,947||17,659|
|GDP (USD bn)||68.3||65.4||70.5||79.2||76.0|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||4.6||5.1||0.3||1.8||-|
|Consumption (annual variation in %)||0.7||-0.5||5.9||0.6||-|
|Investment (annual variation in %)||-1.2||16.5||-4.3||-5.1||-|
|Industrial Production (annual variation in %)||5.1||4.8||-1.6||2.6||-|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-17.6||-21.1||-13.9||-8.7||-9.1|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||15.5||32.7||46.4||53.5||62.6|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||0.1||1.1||1.6||0.9||0.1|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||1.00||1.19||1.95||2.93||-|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||0.39||0.39||0.39||0.39||0.39|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-16.0||-19.1||-15.6||-5.5||-|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-10.9||-12.5||-11.0||-4.3||-|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||9.1||6.3||8.8||18.1||-|
|Exports (USD billion)||35.6||27.5||32.8||41.7||-|
|Imports (USD billion)||26.5||21.3||24.1||23.6||-|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||-33.4||-22.8||19.4||26.9||-|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||-4.8||-19.9||13.3||-2.0||-|
|International Reserves (USD)||17.5||20.2||16.1||17.4||16.6|
5 years of Oman economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||0.39||0.06 %||Dec 31|
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