Norway GDP


Total GDP growth disappoints in first quarter on worsening oil activity

In the first quarter, total GDP fell a seasonally adjusted 0.2% over the previous period. The print contrasted both the revised 0.1% rise tallied in the last quarter of 2012 (previously reported: +0.4% quarter-on-quarter) and the 0.3% expansion expected by market analysts. According to the statistical institute, total GDP was dragged down by a sharp contraction in petroleum activities and ocean transport. On an annual basis, total GDP deteriorated sharply from a 1.9% rise in the fourth quarter to a 2.7% drop in the first, marking the steepest fall observed since Q2 2009.

Meanwhile, Norway mainland's GDP - which consists of all domestic production activity except for extraction of crude oil and natural gas (including related services), pipeline and ocean transport - rose a seasonally adjusted 0.7% over the previous quarter. The print marks an acceleration over the 0.2% expansion recorded in Q4 2012 (previously reported: +0.3% qoq) but undershot the 0.8% increase expected by the market. Compared to the same period last year, the mainland economy slipped 0.6% in the first quarter, which contrasted the 2.8% increase tallied in the previous three-month period.

Both private consumption (Q4: +0.4% qoq; Q1: +1.0% qoq) and government spending (Q4: +0.4% qoq; Q1: +0.5% qoq) accelerated over the previous period and remained as one of the main growth engines. On the other hand, gross fixed capital investment slowed markedly in Q1 (Q4: +1.8% qoq; Q1: +1.0% qoq). Moreover, GDP was negatively affected by a destocking process.

On the the external side of the economy, exports of goods and services improved in the first quarter, expanding a seasonally adjusted 0.2% over the previous three-month period (Q4: -2.0% qoq). Meanwhile, imports rose 0.3%, contrasting a 1.5% contraction in the fourth quarter. As a result, the external sector's net contribution to overall growth improved from minus 0.3 percentage points in the fourth quarter to zero growth in the first.

The Central Bank expects total GDP to rise 1.8% in 2013, before accelerating to a 2.3% rise in 2014. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists see total GDP increasing 2.0% in 2013, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month's estimate. For 2014, the panel expects the economy to expand 2.4%.

Meanwhile, the Bank sees Mainland GDP expanding 2.8% in 2013 and 3.0% in 2014. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists expect Mainland GDP to increase 2.6% in 2013, which is unchanged from last month's projection. In 2014, panellists see GDP growth rising to 2.7%.

Sample Report

Looking for forecasts related to GDP in Norway? Download a sample report now.


Norway GDP Chart

Norway GDP Q1 2013

Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally adjusted GDP and year-on-year variation in %.
Source: Statistics Norway (SN) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

Norway Economic News

  • Norway: Inflation eases further in September

    October 10, 2016

    In September, consumer prices climbed 0.3% from the previous month, which contrasted August’s reading (-0.5% month-on-month) but undershot market expectations of a 0.7% increase.

    Read more

  • Norway: Industrial production swings to contraction in August

    October 7, 2016

    In August, industrial production decreased 4.7% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, which contrasted the 4.7% expansion recorded in July and marked the lowest reading since April 2015.

    Read more

  • Norway: Norges Bank leaves rate unchanged at 0.50%

    September 22, 2016

    At its 21 September policy meeting, Norges Bank (NB) decided to leave its key policy rate at the all-time low of 0.50%, as was expected by market participants. Norges Bank noted that global growth was moderate and that in the medium term import demand from its main trading partners will be lower than previously expected.

    Read more

  • Norway: Inflation eases in August

    September 9, 2016

    In August, consumer prices dropped 0.5% over the previous month, which contrasted July’s reading (+0.6% month-on-month) and undershot market expectations of a 0.4% drop.

    Read more

  • Norway: Industrial production rebounds in July

    September 7, 2016

    In July, industrial production expanded 5.5% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, which marked a rebound from the 4.7% fall recorded in June and represented the highest reading since October 2012.

    Read more

More news

Search form