Macedonia Economic Outlook
October 5, 2021National accounts data showed that the economy rebounded markedly in annual terms in Q2, although the reading was flattered by a low base effect. GDP jumped 13.1% year-on-year in the quarter, contrasting Q1’s 1.9% contraction, supported by a significant acceleration in household spending growth and a sharp bounce-back in investment activity. The external sector also performed well, with exports soaring by almost 50% compared to the same period of 2020. The recovery seemingly carried over into the third quarter. Retail sales continued to expand solidly in July-August, while tourist numbers almost doubled over the previous year in July, although they were still significantly down from 2019. Moreover, the debt-to-GDP ratio declined in July compared to June, boding well for fiscal metrics. On a less positive note, momentum in the industrial sector weakened considerably in July-August.
North Macedonia Economic GrowthThe economy should grow solidly this year and next, as domestic demand revives amid unleashed pent-up spending and supportive fiscal and monetary policies, while a recovering international backdrop should boost tourist arrivals. That said, the possible spread of Covid-19 variants globally and higher energy prices are key risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP to expand 3.9% in 2021 and 4.0% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate.
North Macedonia Economy Data
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North Macedonia Facts
|Exchange Rate||54.86||-0.56 %||Jan 01|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Jan 07|
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