North Macedonia Economic Forecast

Macedonia Economic Outlook

November 2, 2021

Prime Minister Zoran Zaev resigned on 31 October, following a tough defeat in local elections on the same day. If parliament accepts his resignation, the most likely scenario seems to be a new cabinet under a different leader of the ruling SDSM party, although snap elections are also a possibility. Meanwhile, the economic recovery likely carried over into Q3, albeit at a softer pace, after GDP jumped in Q2 on the back of stronger domestic demand and soaring exports. On the pandemic front, the government relaxed some restrictions in the hospitality sector in mid-October, boding well for activity in Q4. Meanwhile, the European Commission recently released its annual progress report, in which it reiterated that the country is ready to start accession talks. The Commission highlighted progress made on the rule of law and fighting organized crime, although it criticized slow judicial reforms.

North Macedonia Economic Growth

The economy should grow solidly next year. Supportive fiscal and monetary policies, coupled with accumulated savings, should fuel domestic demand, while the lifting of restrictions should boost tourist arrivals. However, elevated energy prices and Covid-19-related uncertainty pose key risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP to expand 3.9% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 3.4% in 2023.

North Macedonia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)2.12.12.12.12.1
GDP per capita (USD)4,8895,1745,5046,0076,194
GDP per capita (EUR)4,3814,6564,8385,1515,459
GDP (USD bn)10.110.711.412.512.9
GDP (EUR bn)9.19.710.010.711.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.92.81.12.73.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.43.92.13.73.5
Investment (annual variation in %)8.312.5-2.2-7.36.6
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)4.93.30.25.43.7
Unemployment Rate26.123.722.420.717.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.5-2.7-2.7-1.8-2.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)38.139.939.440.640.2
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)7.76.23.811.89.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.3-0.21.41.40.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.253.753.252.502.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)56.5558.5051.2853.8054.86
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)55.4355.6954.6352.1854.96
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)61.4161.5261.5361.7161.50
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)61.5061.6161.6061.5661.46
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.9-2.9-0.8-0.2-2.7
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.2-0.3-0.10.0-0.3
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-1.8-1.8-1.8-1.7-2.0
Exports (EUR billion)3.03.54.14.95.3
Imports (EUR billion)4.95.35.96.67.3
Exports (annual variation in %)9.415.815.519.89.1
Imports (annual variation in %)5.09.79.712.910.2
International Reserves (EUR)2.32.62.32.93.3
External Debt (% of GDP)66.870.074.870.1-  

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North Macedonia Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate54.86-0.56 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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