North Macedonia Economic Forecast

Macedonia Economic Outlook

October 5, 2021

National accounts data showed that the economy rebounded markedly in annual terms in Q2, although the reading was flattered by a low base effect. GDP jumped 13.1% year-on-year in the quarter, contrasting Q1’s 1.9% contraction, supported by a significant acceleration in household spending growth and a sharp bounce-back in investment activity. The external sector also performed well, with exports soaring by almost 50% compared to the same period of 2020. The recovery seemingly carried over into the third quarter. Retail sales continued to expand solidly in July-August, while tourist numbers almost doubled over the previous year in July, although they were still significantly down from 2019. Moreover, the debt-to-GDP ratio declined in July compared to June, boding well for fiscal metrics. On a less positive note, momentum in the industrial sector weakened considerably in July-August.

North Macedonia Economic Growth

The economy should grow solidly this year and next, as domestic demand revives amid unleashed pent-up spending and supportive fiscal and monetary policies, while a recovering international backdrop should boost tourist arrivals. That said, the possible spread of Covid-19 variants globally and higher energy prices are key risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP to expand 3.9% in 2021 and 4.0% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate.

North Macedonia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)2.12.12.12.12.1
GDP per capita (USD)4,8895,1745,5046,0076,194
GDP per capita (EUR)4,3814,6564,8385,1515,459
GDP (USD bn)10.110.711.412.512.9
GDP (EUR bn)9.19.710.010.711.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.92.81.12.73.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.43.92.13.73.5
Investment (annual variation in %)8.312.5-2.2-7.36.6
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)4.93.30.25.43.7
Unemployment Rate26.123.722.420.717.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.5-2.7-2.7-1.8-2.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)38.139.939.440.640.2
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)7.76.23.811.89.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.3-0.21.41.40.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.253.753.252.502.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)56.5558.5051.2853.8054.86
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)55.4355.6954.6352.1854.96
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)61.4161.5261.5361.7161.50
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)61.5061.6161.6061.5661.46
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.9-2.9-0.8-0.2-2.7
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.2-0.3-0.10.0-0.3
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-1.8-1.8-1.8-1.7-2.0
Exports (EUR billion)3.03.54.14.95.3
Imports (EUR billion)4.95.35.96.67.3
Exports (annual variation in %)9.415.815.519.89.1
Imports (annual variation in %)5.09.79.712.910.2
International Reserves (EUR)2.32.62.32.93.3
External Debt (% of GDP)66.870.074.870.1-  

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North Macedonia Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate54.86-0.56 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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