Netherlands GDP


GDP growth moderates on lower gas extraction

In the second quarter of 2015, GDP increased 0.2% in seasonally-adjusted terms over the previous quarter, according to more detailed data released by Statistics Netherlands on 23 September. The reading came in slightly above August’s first estimate of 0.1% but marks a slowdown compared to the 0.7% expansion recorded in Q1. In addition, the result marked the smallest expansion since Q1 of last year. According to Statistics Netherlands, Q2’s moderation mainly came on the back of a weaker external sector.

In Q2, private consumption grew 0.3% over the previous quarter, which came in below the 0.6% increase observed in Q1. Government consumption deteriorated, swinging from Q1’s 0.3% expansion to a 0.1% contraction in Q2. Fixed investment growth advanced from Q1’s 2.6% rise to a 3.2% expansion.

On the external front, growth in exports of goods and services accelerated from a 1.2% expansion in Q1 to a 1.6% rise in Q2. Imports of goods and services picked up notably from a 0.5% increase in Q1 to a stronger 3.1% expansion in Q2. As the expansion of imports outpaced that of exports, the external sector’s net contribution to overall economic growth deteriorated from plus 0.6 percentage points in Q1 to minus 0.9 percentage points in Q2. In August’s release of the first estimate, Statistics Netherlands commented that this development partly resulted from lower natural gas production, as the, “government scaled down natural gas extraction to reduce the risk of earthquakes in the province of Groningen,” which led to lower natural gas exports and a rise in imports.

The economy grew 1.8% in Q2 over the same quarter last year, which was down from Q1’s 2.5% expansion.

The government expects GDP to expand 2.0% in 2015 and sees growth speeding up to 2.1% in 2016. For 2015, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP growing 1.7%, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. For 2016, the panel expects the economy to expand 1.6%.

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Netherlands GDP Chart

Netherlands GDP Q2 2015

Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally adjusted GDP and year-on-year variation in %.
Source: Statistics Netherlands (CBS) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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