Mexico Trade July 2016


Mexico trade deficit deteriorates in July

In July, the trade deficit totaled USD 1.8 billion, which represented a substantial deterioration over the USD 524 million deficit in June but was a touch narrower than the USD 1.3 billion deficit the markets had expected. In year-on-year terms, the trade shortfall was smaller than the USD 2.4 billion registered in July last year. With this result, the 12-month rolling shortfall came in at USD 17.0 billion in July (June: USD 17.6 billion deficit) and marked a third consecutive month of improvement.

The widening of the trade deficit in July reflected a sharp contraction in exports. Mexico’s overseas sales decreased 8.9% in year-on-year terms in July, which marked a faster contraction than the 5.4% drop observed in June. Imports fell 9.9% annually, which marked a deterioration over the 6.1% drop observed in June.

Analysts participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect exports to reach USD 377 billion in 2016, which will represent a 1.0% contraction compared to last year. Meanwhile, imports are expected to decline 0.6% and reach USD 393 billion. For 2017, the panel expects exports and imports to rebound and increase 5.0% and 5.2%, respectively.

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Mexico Trade Chart

Mexico Trade12m July 2016 0

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistics Institute (INEGI)

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