Mexico Inflation


Inflation keeps trending downwards

In November, consumer prices added 0.68% over the preceding month. The reading came in above the 0.51% rise seen in October but surprised the market on the downside, as analysts expected a 0.83% increase. Core consumer prices remained subdued (+0.05% month-on-month), driven by a significant 18.5% monthly drop in mobile phone services, owing to discounts during "El Buen Fin" - the Mexican version of the "Black Friday" in the United States. In contrast, energy tariffs, which are considered non-core prices, added a strong 7.35% over October amid the seasonal phasing out of the summer electricity subsidies.

Owing to the relatively subdued November print, annual headline inflation continued trending down, falling from 4.6% in October to 4.2%, which represents the lowest rate in six months. Annual core inflation also dropped from 3.6% in October to 3.3% in November.

The Central Bank expects inflation to continue moderating in December and close the year slightly below 4.0%. For next year, the Bank projects inflation to end the year at a range between 3.0% and 4.0%.


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Mexico Inflation Chart

Mexico Inflation November 2012

Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month variation of consumer price index in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI).

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