Mexico Inflation September 2016

Mexico

Mexico: Inflation begins to pick up pace

In September, consumer prices jumped 0.61% from the previous month, which was up from the 0.28% increase in August and overshot the 0.56% rise the markets had expected. According to the National Statistics Institute, September’s result stemmed from an increase in both non-core consumer prices, namely prices of fresh food and energy, as well as core consumer prices.

Inflation accelerated and climbed from 2.7% in August to 3.0% September, reaching the Central Bank’s target of 3.0%. This was in line with the Bank’s view that inflationary pressures are mounting.

Meanwhile, the closely-watched core consumer price index—which excludes volatile categories such as fresh food and energy—increased 0.48% in September from the previous month, well above the 0.19% rise in August. Core inflation inched up from 3.0% in August to 3.1% in September.

The Central Bank (Banxico) sees inflation ending the year close to 3.0%. In 2017, Banxico expects inflation to stabilize around its 3.0% target. Panelists surveyed for this month’s LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect inflation to end 2016 at 3.3%, which is down 0.1 percentage points over last month’s forecast. For 2017, the panel sees year-end inflation at 3.3%.


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Mexico Inflation Chart


Mexico Inflation September 2016

Note: Month-on-month and year-on-year changes of consumer price index (CPI) in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistics Institute (INEGI).


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