Mexico GDP Q4 2015


Revised GDP growth data confirms moderation in Q4

More complete data confirmed that Mexico’s GDP growth moderated toward the end of 2015. According to a second release made by the National Statistical Institute (INEGI), GDP increased 2.5% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, which confirmed a preliminary estimate released by INEGIN on 29 January. Q4’s result came in below the 2.8% expansion tallied in the previous quarter and matched market expectations.

The revised data confirmed that agriculture and industry were the main drivers behind Q4’s deceleration. Agriculture increased 2.7% annually in Q4 (previously reported: +3.0% year-on-year), which was slower than a 4.4% expansion observed in Q3. Moreover, growth in the industrial sector was revised down in Q4 from a preliminary 0.6% to 0.2%. Q4’s milder expansion in industry represented a marked deceleration over the 1.3% increase in Q3. Conversely, growth in services accelerated from a 3.4% increase in Q3 to a 3.7% expansion in Q4. In addition, Q4’s growth in services was revised up from 3.5% initial estimate.

Looking at seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter data, Mexico’s GDP expanded 0.5% in Q4 (previously reported: +0.6% quarter-on-quarter), which represented a slower increase compared to the 0.8% expansion tallied in Q3.

The Central Bank (Banxico) sees the economy growing between 2.5% and 3.5%, while, for 2017, the Bank expects GDP to grow between 3.0% and 4.0%. According to the latest survey of analysts for the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast, panelists see the economy increasing 2.7% in 2016, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2017, the panel expects growth to pick up to 3.1%.

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Mexico GDP Chart

Mexico GDP Q4 2015 0

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistics Institute (INEGI) and LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

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