Mexico GDP Q3 2021


Mexico: Economy records sharpest contraction since Q2 2020 in Q3 according to second estimate

November 25, 2021

According to a second estimate, GDP dropped 0.4% on a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in the third quarter (flash estimate: -0.2% s.a. qoq), contrasting the 1.2% expansion recorded in the second quarter. Q3's reading marked the sharpest drop since Q2 2020.

The services sector contracted 0.9% over the previous quarter in seasonally-adjusted terms in Q3, contrasting the second quarter's 1.2% increase and marking the largest contraction since Q2 2020. The industrial sector slowed to a 0.3% increase in Q3 (Q2: +0.8% s.a. qoq), while primary sector growth slowed to 1.3% in Q3, marking the worst reading since Q4 2020 (Q2: +2.9% s.a. qoq).

On an annual basis, economic growth waned markedly to 4.5% in Q3, down from the previous quarter's 19.9% growth.

A flash estimate for October pointed to a month-on-month increase in economic activity, driven by the secondary and tertiary sectors, with firm data due towards the end of December.

The LatinFocus panel projects the economy to grow 3.0% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2023, the panel sees GDP growth at 2.3%.


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Mexico GDP Chart

Mexico GDP Q3  2021 1

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistics Institute (INEGI).

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