Mexico Economic Activity


Economic activity slows in April but sequential data suggest firmer growth

In April, the monthly economic activity indicator (IGAE) elaborated by INEGI increased 2.1% over the same month last year. The reading marked a deceleration compared to the 2.8% expansion registered in March and fell short of the 2.3% increase the markets had expected. April’s reading reflected slower growth in the industrial and services sectors. Conversely, the agricultural sector rebounded and expanded 4.7% in April, which contrasted a 1.4% contraction registered in March. Is important to point out that the annual data were distorted by seasonal and calendar effects.

That said, the overall trend continued to improve, which suggests that economic activity gradually strengthens. The 12-month average growth in economic activity inched up from 2.3% in March to 2.4% in April, which marked the fastest pace in nearly two years.

A month-on-month comparison, however, suggested firmer growth in economic activity in April than the slowdown indicated by the annual data. It increased a seasonally-adjusted 0.72% in April, which contrasted the 0.54% contraction observed in March. The month-on-month variation marked the fastest pace of expansion 23 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy expanding 3.0% in 2015, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel expects growth to pick up to 3.5%.

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Mexico Economic Activity Chart

Mexico Economic Activity April 2015

Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average growth rate of monthly economic activity in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistics Institute (INEGI)

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