Kenya GDP Q4 2015


Kenya: GDP growth slightly slower in Q4; full-year growth ticks up

May 4, 2016

In the final quarter of 2015, GDP increased 5.7% in annual terms, which marked a moderate deceleration over Q3’s 6.0% rise. Compared to the previous quarter, GDP increased a seasonally-adjusted 3.2% in Q4 (Q3: +1.4% quarter-on-quarter). In the full year 2015, the Kenyan economy expanded 5.6%, which marked a pickup over 2014’s 5.3% reading. Full-year growth was mainly driven by private consumption and public spending, while fixed investment grew at a slower pace and the external sector remained a drag on growth.

As for the quarterly result, Q4’s 5.7% expansion was driven by increases among 14 of the 16 sub-components. Notably, the accommodation and restaurant component rebounded strongly, recording the first expansion in two years and growth at a double-digit pace. The result indicates that Kenya’s tourism sector, which suffered from safety concerns over terrorist attacks, is on the road to recovery. Moreover, double-digit expansion was tallied by the key agricultural sector, mining and quarrying, construction as well as health services. By contrast, the real estate component deteriorated and swung into contraction, along with public administration.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP expanding 5.8% in 2016, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. For 2017, our panelist projects growth of 6.1%.

Author: Teresa Kersting, Economist

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