Japan GDP


GDP expands more than initially expected in Q1

According to new data released on 10 June, in the first quarter, GDP expanded a strong 4.1% over the previous quarter in seasonally adjusted annualized terms (saar). The print follows the 1.2% increase tallied in the final quarter of 2012 and marks an improvement over the 3.5% rise reported in the first estimate. On an annual basis, economic activity expanded 0.4% in the first quarter (previously reported: +0.2% year-on-year).

The improvement over the initial estimate was mainly due to a more resilient domestic demand, while the external sector was unrevised. Private non-residential investment contracted a less severe 1.2%, compared to the previously reported 2.6% decline. Moreover, GDP benefited from stronger gross fixed investment. Meanwhile, private consumption expanded 3.6% (previously reported: +3.7% quarter-on-quarter saar), while public spending rose 1.7% (previously reported: +2.3% qoq saar).

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) expects the economy to expand between 2.4% and 3.0% in the fiscal year ending in March 2014. In the following fiscal year, the BoJ sees GDP growing between 1.0% and 1.5%. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists see GDP expanding 1.4% in 2013, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month's projection. In 2014, the panel sees the economy growing 1.5%.

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Japan GDP Chart

Japan GDP Q1 2013

Note: Quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annualized changes and annual variation of GDP in %.
Source: Cabinet Office (CO) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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