Japan GDP


Economic growth weaker than initially reported

GDP expanded 1.1% over the previous quarter in seasonally adjusted annualized terms (SAAR) in Q3, according to new data released on 9 December. The print is below the 1.9% increase that was reported in the first estimate and marks a sharp deterioration compared to the 3.6% rise tallied in Q2. On an annual basis, economic activity expanded 2.4% in Q3 (previously reported: +2.7% year-on-year).

The deterioration over the initial estimate was due to less resilient domestic demand, while the result for the external sector was virtually unrevised. Private non-residential investment was flat over the previous period, which was below the 0.7% increase that had been reported previously. Gross fixed investment grew at a weaker pace than initially reported, expanding 7.6% in Q3 (previously reported: +8.8% quarter-on-quarter SAAR). Conversely, private consumption performed better than initially reported, increasing 0.8% (previously reported: +0.4% qoq SAAR), while government spending growth was broadly unchanged at 1.0% (previously reported: +1.1% qoq SAAR).

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) expects the economy to expand between 2.6% and 3.0% in the fiscal year ending in March 2014. In the subsequent fiscal year, the BoJ sees GDP growing between 0.9% and 1.5%. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP expanding 1.9% in 2013, which is unchanged from last month's projection. In 2014, the panel sees the economy growing 1.7%, which is also unchanged from last month's estimate.

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Japan GDP Chart

Japan GDP Q3 2013

Note: Quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annualized changes and annual variation of GDP in %.
Source: Cabinet Office (CO) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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