Italy GDP Q1 2016


GDP growth accelerates slightly in Q1

In Q1 2016, GDP recorded 0.3% growth over the previous quarter in seasonally- and working-day adjusted terms, according to more detailed data released by the National Statistics Office (ISTAT) on 31 May. The reading matched the preliminary estimate and came in above the 0.2% rise tallied in Q4. In addition, the figure marked the highest reading since Q2 2015.

Private consumption remained stable at Q4’s 0.3%. Government consumption decelerated from a 0.6% increase to a weaker 0.2% rise. Fixed investment growth also decreased from Q4’s 0.8% to 0.2% in Q1. GDP growth received a positive impetus from higher inventories.

On the external side of the economy, exports swung from a 1.2% expansion in Q4 to a 1.5% fall in Q1, which marked the worst result since Q4 2012. Imports dropped 0.9% in Q1 (Q4: +0.9% quarter-on-quarter). As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to overall growth fell from plus 0.1 percentage points in Q4 to minus 0.2 percentage points in Q1.

In annual terms, the economy grew 1.0% in Q1, which was marginally below Q4’s 1.1% rise and was in line with the preliminary estimate.

Panelists see the economy increasing 1.0% in 2016, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2017, panelists expect the economy to expand 1.2%.

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Italy GDP Chart

Italy GDP Q1 2016 0

Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally-adjusted GDP and year-on-year variation in %.
Source: National Statistics Institute and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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