Italy GDP Q3 2016


Italy: Economy accelerates in Q3

GDP in Italy grew 0.3% over the previous quarter in Q3 in seasonally- and working-day adjusted terms, according to an advance estimate released by the National Statistics Office (ISTAT) on 15 November. The result came in slightly above the flat result in Q2 and overshot the 0.2% expansion markets had expected. According to the press release, expansion in Q3 was the result of growth in value-added in both the industrial and the services sectors, while value-added in the agricultural sector dropped. As for the components, while domestic demand contributed positively to growth, the external sector’s net contribution to growth was negative. More detailed data will be released on 1 December.

In annual terms, GDP grew 0.9% in Q3, which represented an acceleration compared to the 0.7% rise observed in Q2 and marked the highest result since Q2 2011.

Commenting on the outlook, Loredana Federico, Lead Italy Economist at Unicredit Research, adds:

“Preliminary indications for 4Q16 suggest that today’s GDP increase may not last and that the pace of economic growth will slow down at year-end. Among other things, activity in the industrial sector is most likely to be curbed by bridge-day effects in November and December. Business surveys for October continue to suggest an expansion of both industrial and service activity, although at a much slower pace compared to key Eurozone peers. As no hard data is yet available for 4Q16, it is premature to say whether or not Italy will grow again in 4Q16.”

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy increasing 0.8% in 2016, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2017, panelists also expect the economy to expand 0.8%, which is also unchanged from last month’s projection.

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Italy GDP Chart

Italy GDP Q3 2016

Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally-adjusted GDP and year-on-year variation in %.
Source: National Statistics Institute and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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