Indonesia Trade Balance September 2016

Indonesia

Indonesia: Trade surplus rises in September

Indonesia’s trade surplus rose in September to a 14-month high as imports deteriorated. Exports fell 0.6% from the same month last year, which contrasted the slim 0.2% expansion seen in August. Non-oil and gas exports, which account for the majority of Indonesian shipments, rose 2.9% in September, which was below August’s 3.7% increase. Meanwhile, oil and gas exports fell further, contracting 27.0% (August: -25.6% year-on-year). Imports deteriorated, contracting 2.3% in September, following a more tepid 0.1% fall in August.

As the deterioration in imports outweighed exports, the trade surplus rose in September, rising from August’s USD 363 million to USD 1.2 billion. In addition, the result was above September 2015’s USD 1.0 billion surplus and overshot market expectations. Meanwhile, the 12-month moving sum of the trade balance improved from August’s USD 5.9 billion surplus to a USD 6.1 billion surplus.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect exports to decrease 5.6% and see the trade balance tallying a surplus of USD 9.2 billion in 2016. For 2017, the panel expects exports to grow 5.3% and expects the trade surplus to drop to USD 7.3 billion.


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Indonesia Trade Balance Chart


Indonesia Trade12m September 2016

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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