Indonesia Trade Balance January 2017

Indonesia

Indonesia: Trade surplus increases in January

Indonesia’s trade surplus widened in January as export growth surged to the highest rate seen since September 2011. Exports soared 27.7% from the same month last year, which followed the 16.0% expansion seen in December. Non-oil and gas exports, which account for the majority of Indonesian shipments, rose 29.2% in January, which was above December’s 18.5% increase. Meanwhile, oil and gas exports returned to expansion for the first time in over two years, increasing 14.8% (December: -3.8% year-on-year). Import growth picked up to 14.5% in January, which was above December’s 5.8% increase and marked the highest growth rate since May 2012.

The trade surplus rose from December’s USD 1.0 billion to USD 1.4 billion in January. The result was notably above January 2016’s USD 140 million surplus and overshot market expectations. Meanwhile, the 12-month moving sum of the trade balance improved from December’s USD 8.8 billion surplus to USD 10.2 billion surplus in January.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect exports to increase 1.6% and see the trade balance recording a surplus of USD 9.5 billion in 2017. For 2018, the panel expects exports to grow 4.0% and expects the trade surplus to drop to USD 8.5 billion.


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Indonesia Trade Balance Chart


Indonesia Trade12m January 2017

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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