Indonesia Trade Balance


Trade surplus grows in September as imports continue to decline more than exports

Exports contracted 18.0% in September over the same month last year, which was more pronounced than the 12.1% drop seen in August. September’s result marked the fifth consecutive double-digit loss. Non-oil and gas exports, which account for the majority of Indonesian shipments, dropped 12.5% in September (August: -5.8% year-on-year). Oil and gas exports contracted a staggering 44.7% (August: -41.1% yoy). Meanwhile, imports fell 26.0% in September, which was greater than the 16.2% contraction seen in August.

The trade surplus roughly tripled from USD 328 million in August to USD 1.0 billion in September. This result contrasted the USD 270 million deficit recorded in the same month of 2014 and far exceed the USD 270 million surplus the market had expected. Meanwhile, the 12-month moving sum of the trade balance advanced from a USD 5.6 billion surplus in August to a USD 6.9 billion surplus in September.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect exports to fall 1.0% and see the trade balance reaching a USD 6.9 billion surplus in 2015. For 2016, the panel expects exports to grow 6.8% and expects the trade surplus to reach USD 8.4 billion.

Author:, Economist

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Indonesia Trade Balance Chart

Indonesia Trade12m September 2015

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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