Indonesia Trade Balance


Trade surplus grows in July as imports tumble more than exports

Exports contracted 19.2% in July over the same month last year, which followed the 12.4% decline observed in June. July’s result marked the third consecutive double-digit loss and largest contraction in nearly three years. Non-oil and gas exports, which account for the majority of Indonesian shipments, dropped 14.1% in July (June: -4.4% year-on-year). Oil and gas exports contracted a staggering 43.0% (June: -48.3% yoy). Meanwhile, imports fell 28.4% in July, which followed the 17.3% contraction in June and marked the sharpest contraction in seven years.

The trade surplus grew from USD 528 million in June to USD 1.3 billion in July. This result overshadowed the USD 42 million surplus recorded in the same month of 2014 and more than doubled the USD 520 million surplus the market had expected. Meanwhile, the 12-month moving sum of the trade balance jumped from a USD 3.6 billion surplus in June to a USD 4.9 billion surplus in July.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect exports to fall 1.0% and see the trade balance reaching a USD 6.9 billion surplus in 2015. For 2016, the panel expects exports to grow 6.8% and expects the trade surplus to reach USD 8.4 billion.

Author:, Economist

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Indonesia Trade Balance Chart

Indonesia Trade12m July 2015

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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