Indonesia Trade Balance August 2016


Trade surplus falls in August

Higher imports caused Indonesia’s trade surplus to tumble in August despite a less pronounced decline in shipments abroad. Exports fell 0.7% over the same month last year, which was an improvement over the 16.9% drop seen in July. August’s result marked the smallest contraction since September 2014. Non-oil and gas exports, which account for the majority of Indonesian shipments, expanded 2.8% in August, which notably contrasted July’s 15.1% decrease. Meanwhile, oil and gas exports recorded a mild improvement falling 26.3% (July: -29.8% year-on-year). Imports also recorded the softest decline since September 2014, falling 0.5% (July: -10.6%).

As a result, the trade surplus narrowed in August, falling from July’s USD 514 million to USD 294 million. In addition, the result was below August 2015’s USD 327 million surplus and undershot market expectations. Meanwhile, the 12-month moving sum of the trade balance was unchanged at July’s 5.9 billion surplus.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect exports to decrease 5.6% and see the trade balance tallying a surplus of USD 9.2 billion in 2016. For 2017, the panel expects exports to grow 5.3% and expects the trade surplus to drop to USD 7.3 billion.

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Indonesia Trade Balance Chart

Indonesia Trade12m August 2016

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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