Indonesia Trade Balance January 2016


Indonesia: Trade balance tallies a surplus in January

February 15, 2016

Exports contracted 20.7% in January over the same month last year, which was slightly worse than the 17.5% drop seen in December. January’s result marked the ninth consecutive double-digit loss. Non-oil and gas exports, which account for the majority of Indonesian shipments, dropped 16.7% in January (December: -13.5% year-on-year). Oil and gas exports contracted a staggering 46.7% (December: -44.8% yoy). Meanwhile, imports fell 17.2% in January, which was a more pronounced decline than the 16.3% contraction seen in December.

The trade balance swung back to surplus in January, rising from December’s USD 161 million deficit to a USD 51 million gain. However, this result was still far below January 2015’s USD 632 million surplus, but overshot market expectations of a deficit. Meanwhile, the 12-month moving sum of the trade balance narrowed from a USD 7.6 billion surplus in December to a USD 7.0 billion surplus in January.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect exports to increase 2.8% and see the trade balance reaching a surplus of USD 10.0 billion in 2016. For 2017, the panel expects exports to grow 10.4% and expects the trade surplus to reach USD 10.5 billion.


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Indonesia Trade Balance Chart

Indonesia Trade12m January 2016

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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