Indonesia Trade Balance October 2021


Indonesia: Merchandise exports rise at a quicker pace in October

November 17, 2021

Merchandise exports soared 53.4% over the same month last year in October (September: +47.6% year-on-year). Meanwhile, merchandise imports soared 51.1% over the same month last year in October (September: +40.3% yoy).

As a result, the merchandise trade balance improved from the previous month, recording a USD 5.7 billion surplus in October (September 2021: USD 4.4 billion surplus; October 2020: USD 3.6 billion surplus). Lastly, the trend pointed up, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 35.5 billion surplus in October, compared to the USD 33.3 billion surplus in September.

Commenting on the release, Nichlas Mapa, senior economist at ING, stated:

“The rapid pickup in exports was reflected in a meaningful rebound in the manufacturing sector of late. […] Meanwhile, robust imports reflect improving domestic demand which was also noted in rising consumer confidence as measured by Bank Indonesia. Should these trends continue, Indonesia will likely enjoy a strong finish to the year although gains will likely still be capped as overall vaccination efforts fall short of herd immunity levels.”

Our panelists forecast that in 2022 exports will decrease 0.9% and imports will rise 6.3%, with a trade surplus of USD 18.4 billion. In 2023, FocusEconomics panelists expect exports will expand 8.2%, while imports will rise 9.3%, with a trade surplus of USD 17.8 billion.


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