India Trade September 2016

India

India: Trade deficit narrows in September

Recently-released data related to India’s external sector showed that the trade deficit totaled USD 8.3 billion in September, which was a smaller shortfall than the USD 10.2 billion gap recorded in September 2015 (August 2016: USD 7.7 billion deficit). The rolling 12-month trade deficit narrowed from USD 95.4 billion in August to USD 93.5 billion in September, which is the smallest accumulated shortfall since December 2009.

The improvement in trade data came on the back of a pick-up in export growth and a slight contraction in imports. Imports totaled USD 31.2 billion in September, which represented a 2.5% fall from the same month last year (August 2016: -13.5% year-on-year; September 2015: -26.1% yoy).

Meanwhile, export growth picked up steam, rising from August’s 1.2% over the same month last year to 4.6% (September 2015: -24.2% yoy). India’s shipments abroad totaled USD 31.2 billion, which represented an over one-year high.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect exports to grow 3.0% in FY 2016 to reach USD 269 billion. In FY 2017, the panel sees exports expanding 6.7% to USD 287 billion.


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India Trade Chart


India Trade12m September 2016

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry and FocusEconomics calculations.


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