India Inflation September 2016

India

India: Price pressures moderate in September

In September, consumer prices fell 0.23% from the previous month, which followed August’s flat growth. The monthly decrease reflected lower prices for food and beverages. Inflation continued to fall in September, declining from August’s 5.0% to an over one-year low of 4.3%. As a result, inflation is now broadly at the center of the Central Bank’s target of 4.0% plus/minus 2.0 percentage points.

The wholesale price index (WPI) in September fell 0.16% from the previous month, which followed August’s 0.44% decrease. The overall decline in the index was driven by falling prices for primary articles, while prices for fuel and power products as well as manufactured goods rose. Wholesale price inflation inched down from 3.7% in August to 3.6% in September. The trend pointed up and the annual average variation in wholesale prices jumped from minus 0.2% in August to plus 0.5% in September.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect consumer price inflation to average 5.3% in FY 2016, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In FY 2017, the panel expects consumer price inflation to average 5.2%.Panelists expect wholesale price inflation of 2.9% in FY 2016, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In FY 2017, the panel expects wholesale price inflation to average 3.2%.


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India Inflation Chart


India Inflation September 2016

Note: Annual and monthly variation of wholesale price index (WPI) and annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %.
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry and FocusEconomics calculations.


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