Guatemala Remittances September 2021

Guatemala

Guatemala: Remittance inflows continue growing at a strong pace in September

October 7, 2021

Remittances totaled a record-high of USD 1,299.3 million in September, rising 23.6% year-on-year (August: +32.2% yoy). In the 12 months up to September, remittances totaled USD 14.3 billion (August: USD 14.0 billion), the highest print on record. The 12-month rolling sum marked a 32.0% increase from a year prior (August: 31.7% yoy).

Remittances are a key source of income for Guatemalan families and tend to follow employment trends in the United States, where the majority of remittance payments originate from. As such, the expected recovery in the U.S. amid vast government stimulus should boost remittances inflows and support the Guatemalan economy.

Analysts at the EIU added:

“Guatemala is experiencing a solid V-shaped recovery, buoyed by record inflows of workers' remittances from abroad. […]. After real GDP contracted by 1.5% in 2020, we forecast a robust recovery of 5.4% in 2021. This mainly reflects rapid growth in the U.S. and particularly the impact of U.S. government stimulus on remittances.”

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants see private consumption expanding 5.4% in 2021, which is up 0.8 percentage points from last month, and increasing 3.8% in 2022.


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