Guatemala Inflation


Inflation reaches five-month low in September

In September, consumer prices rose 0.29% over the previous month, more than doubling the 0.14% rise recorded in August. The increase mainly reflected higher prices for food and housing, according to the statistical institute.

Annual headline inflation moderated from 4.4% in August to 4.2% in September, marking a five-month low. As a result, inflation remains well anchored within the Central Bank's tolerance margin (plus/minus 1.0 percentage points) around its target of 4.0%. Core consumer prices added 0.09% in September (August: +0.04% month-on-month), while annual core inflation inched down from 3.0% in August to 2.9% in September, the lowest level since November 2010.

At its 25 September monetary policy meeting, the Central Bank decided to maintain the policy interest rate at 5.25%. The Bank justified its decision citing the gradual global economic recovery as well as healthy domestic growth. Regarding price developments, the Bank stated that inflation remains in line with the target for this year.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see inflation at 4.7% by the end of the year, which is unchanged from last month's estimate. Next year, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect inflation to inch up to 4.8%, which is up 0.1 percentage points over the previous month's forecast.

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Guatemala Inflation Chart

Guatemala Inflation September 2013

Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.
Source: National Statistics Institute.

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