Guatemala Inflation September 2016

Guatemala

Guatemala: Inflation inches down in September

In September, consumer prices declined 0.21% from the previous month, which came in below the 0.18% increase seen in August. The print was largely driven by a severe decrease in food prices, which more than offset an increase in prices for transportation, housing and healthcare services.

September’s inflation came in at 4.6%, which was slightly below August’s 4.7% reading. This brought inflation further below the Central Bank’s upper tolerance limit of 5.0%.

At its 28 September monetary policy meeting, the Bank of Guatemala decided to keep its policy rate at 3.00%. In its brief press release, the Bank stated that it sees the global recovery continuing at a weak and uneven pace, with risks tilted to the downside. Regarding the domestic economy, the Central Bank considers that recent high frequency data suggest the economy is growing in line with its previous estimates. The Bank added that it expects inflation to remain within its target range this year and in 2017.

The Central Bank sees inflation ending this year at 4.25%, while it expects inflation to close 2017 at 4.50%. FocusEconomics panelists forecast that inflation will end the year at 3.7%, which is unchanged from last month's projection. In 2017, the panel sees inflation ending the year at 3.7% as well.


Author:, Economist

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